The old power is breaking down in Europe
The European elections in May culminated the spring of Blic's Brussels office, with the city offering front row seats to the elections. Martti and Emmi, Blic's Brussels brains, analyse what is happening in the EU one month after the elections.
The elections repeated a phenomenon seen in Finland, where support was more evenly divided between different parties and groups. The EPP and S&D, the traditional groups in power, lost out at the expense of the Liberals and Greens.
The popularity of right-wing populists and Eurosceptic groups rose along with the Greens. However, the critical voices remained below expectations, while the Greens performed historically well in many Member States. The Greens' strong performance and growing environmental concern will undoubtedly have an impact on the programme of the next Commission.
The torsion of the top currencies underway
Europe's leading power seems to have become the subject of a political battle. It is common to see the president of the European Commission as the front-runner of the largest parliamentary group, the so-called Spitzenkandidat . But the position of the front-runner, Manfred Weber of Germany, who defeated Alexander Stubb (Coalition Party) in Helsinki, is under threat. Parliament's liberal and green groups have questioned the weakened frontrunner's path to the European top job. The challenge has been backed by the majority Liberal and centre-left leaders in the European Council. French President Emmanuel Macron, who is critical of the front-runner arrangement, says Weber is too inexperienced to be president of the Commission.
On the other hand, the plight of Weber's presidential hopes is balanced by the fact that no credible challenger has emerged to stand alongside him. At the same time, however, the European Council has opened up the playing field to surprise candidates by reminding us that it is not legally bound by the arrangement of top candidates. In the wildest rumours, even Germany's iron-fisted Angela Merkel and Michel Barnier, the Frenchman who has firmly defended the EU's position on Brexit rules, have been tipped to lead the Commission.
The setup described above can also be seen as an inter-institutional battle: ignoring the groups' frontrunners would mean a backlash from member states against the European Parliament. In his statements, Weber has therefore sided with Parliament, accusing the European Council of being a backroom of diplomats who are thwarting democracy.
The election of the Commission President is also strongly linked to the filling of other top EU posts. In Finland, attention is particularly focused on the appointment of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB). In an assessment by the respected The Economist, among others, Erkki Liikanen has been singled out as a potential European banking boss.
What's next?
Since the elections, new winds have been blowing in Europe, challenging both institutions and power groups. The break-up of old power and the polarisation of politics seen in Europe in recent years have also reached the heart of Europe.
Our eyes now turn to next Sunday's extraordinary European Council meeting, where the dispute over the Commission President will be on the backburner. We will see if the Council can reach an agreement or if the Commission under Jean-Claude Juncker will continue to sit beyond the summer and beyond Finland's EU presidency.
Martti von Wright & Emmi Meriranta
The authors completed a Brainee internship at Blic's Brussels office