The exceptional situation is reflected in party support here and abroad
In crisis situations, people often rally around those in power. This is why political leaders increase their popular support in major crises. It is therefore to be expected that the interest rate pandemic, dubbed the most severe ordeal of the peacetime era, has boosted the support of prime ministerial parties and governments around the world.
I examined the extent of the phenomenon by looking at polls in a number of European countries. I also combined the data with time series of interest rate situations and actions in different countries to look for consistencies in voters' reactions across countries. As expected, the analysis shows that the pandemic has had a clear impact on party support. However, the effects are not unequivocal.
In many countries, the incumbents' support curves went into a clear upward swing after the pandemic hit in spring 2020. In Finland, support for the SDP, the prime minister's party, rose from around 15% in January to around 23% in May. Some of Finland's peer countries saw even sharper increases in support for their prime ministerial parties. Jumps of around 10% were seen in countries such as Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands.
In autumn 2020, the political debate started to revive again and the initial shock of the koruna started to recover. In many countries, support for those in power began to melt away. As the second wave of the koruna hit and countries tightened again, public saturation and dissatisfaction with the management of the koruna began to grow. Indeed, incumbents have suffered a clear drop in support since the peak in support in spring 2020. The graph shows how the combined support for the governing parties evolved during the koruna in Finland.
Interestingly, there has not been a consistent shift in support from mainstream parties to parties with a particular set of policies. In Finland, the Finns have gained support, in Germany the Greens and in Austria the Social Democrats. It seems that support typically goes to the most credible alternative party that can offer a change to the status quo. In Finland, for example, the Coalition Party has been unable to distinguish itself as a real alternative party after its long period in government, which prevents it from gaining ground even in opposition. The graph shows how SDP support has shifted to the Finns while support for the Coalition has remained relatively stable.
The trend has not been as clear in all European countries. In Spain, for example, support for the prime minister's party has remained relatively stable throughout the pandemic. Moreover, in the UK, Boris Johnson's Conservative support followed the typical up-down logic of a crisis until the success of the island nation's vaccination strategy boosted Conservative support again. Labour's performance is effectively a mirror image of the Conservatives.
It must be remembered that the situation of individual countries and parties can change in a much shorter time due to normal day-to-day politics. However, it is quite exceptional for the support curves of many countries to fluctuate simultaneously and with relatively similar logic. This exceptional situation has clearly affected the support for the various parties. It will be interesting to see whether the support for alternative parties will continue in the future or whether the situation will level off as the crisis subsides.
Sources: Blavatnik School of Government (University of Oxford), Europe Elects, Politico | Figures by Aleksi Rantala
Aleksi Rantala
The author is a Blic trainee who has impressed the whole office with her diamond data analytics skills.