Will the election season end with a government shutdown or a slap on the wrist?
Since the government's budget session, the government has backed down on one decision or another: we are in a situation where, in the end, the Police received their allocation and the Veikkaus beneficiaries their full compensation. The truth below the line, however, is that even the EUR 110 million investment did not dent the government's political coffers. On the contrary, it seems that relations between the main parties in government, the SDP and the Centre, took a bad knock, which may foreshadow growing turbulence towards the end of the election period. More interesting than individual budget increases is what the government will achieve in the next year and a half or so and whether significant parts of the government programme will not be implemented.
The current term of government has been quite a turbulent one. Although it seems like an eternity ago, the election period began with Finland's EU Presidency. During the presidency, the political leadership and the civil service were busy with various EU issues, largely interrupting the preparation of legislation and the implementation of the government programme. After various phases and a political crisis, the presidency ended with a change of prime minister at Christmas 2019. In January, the new prime minister Marin and his cabinet prepared the actual implementation of the contents of the government programme, but the interest rate crisis in early 2020 put a new spin on the plans. Again, much of the government's original agenda was shelved until better times, as the pandemic naturally took the attention of top politicians and society alike.
The interest rate crisis in Finland is receding and the restrictive measures have largely been abandoned. Indeed, throughout the autumn session, the government has clearly been refocused on the implementation of its agreed programme and related proposals. A huge number of government proposals and various reports are expected this autumn and next spring, which will enter the parliamentary stage. There is still a good deal of time left in the electoral period, so it is possible that these proposals will be passed, but there should be no further significant delays. There is a real risk that the committees, especially the Constitutional Committee, which in the last parliamentary term became a bottleneck in the decision-making process on many issues, will become congested. It will also be interesting to see whether the hitherto rather toothless opposition will succeed in using its influence in Parliament to block matters it does not like. In the worst case, we could see a real slump in the spring of 2023, with a significant number of bills lapsing due to lack of time.
The most important factor in the government's ability to function is the ability to work together between the parties in government. In the light of recent crises, this is something the current government leaves something to be desired, to say the least. The regional elections in January 2022 will add a special spice to the final term, bringing the parties into electoral alignment at a critical juncture of the government's term. There will be winners and losers in the elections, and this will have an impact on how the different parties approach cooperation with the government during the remainder of the term.
On the other hand, it is entirely possible that we are facing a government shutdown. The past record of the government is strong, despite numerous internal and external crises. The government has achieved historic and fundamental reforms, such as the years-long reform of the social welfare system and the raising of the compulsory school age. At least moderate progress has been made on the key elements of the government's programme in terms of the economy, employment and climate decisions. At the same time, Finland has survived the global pandemic with relatively little damage and managed the interest rate crisis very well by international standards. Expectations for the rest of the election period are therefore rightly high.
Jemi Heinilä
The author is a manager at Blic and a passionate follower of domestic politics.