European elections 2024: results and challenges ahead

In reflecting on the European Parliament elections, we can all take a moment to keep a level head. While the big EU visions largely rang hollow, the feared surge of the far-right or far-left didn’t materialize either. 

In Finland, the ruling coalition parties held their ground well, with the exception of the Finns Party. Here, the Left Alliance made gains, but this was primarily due to the personal charisma and appeal of Li Andersson, the party chair and Member of Parliament. 

EU skepticism had little traction in these parts, likely due to the general security landscape. Both the EU and NATO are seen as allies, and Finns wish to remain closely aligned with these organizations. We consider ourselves part of the West and wish to remain so.

Elsewhere, however, EU skepticism resonated more strongly, with populist parties making gains in countries like France and Germany. In Germany, the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) rose to second place, overtaking Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats. In France, the National Rally, most associated with Marine Le Pen, claimed a decisive victory. The election result led President Macron to call new parliamentary elections in July.

Within the European Union, the three largest party blocs (Conservatives (EPP), Socialists (S&D), and Liberals (Renew)) retained their positions, meaning the election result is unlikely to bring significant changes to EU policy or governance. These three blocs are also likely to support a continued term for current Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. 

The substantial losses experienced by the Greens in various countries may slightly curb the green agenda, but not significantly enough to prompt a major policy shift in the EU. Practically all major parties across EU countries acknowledge climate change and are prepared to take action to slow global warming.

In addition to the green agenda, the next Commission is expected to focus more on the competitiveness of European industry, security of supply, and strategic autonomy concerning China and the United States. Supporting Ukraine and defining its role in Europe will be central and crucial over the next five years. From this perspective, the unity of the EU will first be tested in the decisions around appointments and the future Commission work program. The more unified the EU is, the greater its influence on Ukraine's future. Let us not forget that peace and its promotion remain among the EU’s founding principles.

Riina Nevamäki

The author is a partner at Blic.