Leap Forward or Stumble?Hungary Under Magyar and the Clash with Europe’s Expectations

Hungary’s parliamentary elections on April 12, 2026 became one of Europe’s most significant political turning points in recent years. The Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar, won a landslide victory, bringing Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule to an end.

Support for the Tisza Party began rising in February 2024, following revelations that then-President Katalin Novák had granted a pardon in 2023 to a man convicted of covering up sexual abuse against children. Once the information became public, widespread protests erupted against the president, leading Novák to resign in February 2024. The scandal eroded the moral legitimacy the government had built over many years and created a political vacuum that a new movement was able to fill.

Sunday’s election was not merely a change of government, but a mandate of exceptional scale. Tisza won around 52 percent of the vote and secured a two-thirds majority in parliament. The result is extraordinary: victory does not simply mean governing power, but in practice the ability to rewrite the rules of the game. The same system that enabled Orbán to consolidate power now enables Magyar to do the same. Is Hungary merely changing drivers, or rebuilding the entire vehicle? Democracy is not restored when power changes hands, but when power ceases to be so easily centralized.

Europe sees a return — but where is Hungary returning to?

Across Europe, the result was quickly interpreted as a return to the West. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the importance of the rule of law and restoring cooperation. The outcome was widely seen as a signal that Hungary was once again ready to commit to shared rules and political norms. Yet the idea of a “return to the West” is far from straightforward. The West is not a fixed destination, but a constantly evolving political and ideological construct.

Institutionally, Hungary has never left the West. It remains a member of both the EU and NATO. However, under Orbán, Hungary challenged the internal logic and norms of these communities. The question has never been one of formal membership, but rather how the country positions itself within these frameworks and how it interprets their core values.

Ukraine exposes the limits of Hungary’s new direction

The Orbán government was known for blocking EU support packages and maintaining close ties with Russia. Yet the new government’s line does not represent a clear-cut reversal. While Tisza does not intend to block EU financial assistance to Ukraine, it does not support all key Western objectives either. Péter Magyar has stated that Hungary will not support Ukraine’s accelerated EU membership, instead calling for a national referendum on the issue.

Hungary’s political culture has been shaped over a long period, and many societal attitudes persist. Views on Ukraine and EU enlargement reflect broader skepticism and are not tied to any single political leader. The new government must both convince Europe of its commitment to shared rules and respond to domestic expectations.

EU funding guides Hungary, but does not dictate its course

The new government aims to rebuild its relationship with the EU, as the release of frozen EU funds requires reforms to strengthen the rule of law. Economic realities force Hungary to balance between EU expectations and domestic political pressures. Billions of euros in EU funds have been frozen due to rule-of-law disputes, and unlocking them is a central objective for the new government. This creates a strong incentive to move closer to the EU, while simultaneously limiting room for maneuver.

Hungary may support common EU solutions when they do not conflict with its own economic or political interests. For this reason, the new government may be willing to approve EU funding packages while opposing more politically sensitive issues, such as accelerated membership processes. Hungary’s 2026 elections do not change whether the country belongs to the West — they change how it operates within it.

Charlotta Leponiemi

The author is an analyst at Blic.