French and British elections: what does a left-wing victory mean for climate policy?
In the first week of July, Europe watched with excitement the early parliamentary elections in the UK and France. Both elections ended in a left-wing victory, but the result was more unexpected in Britain, where polls had long tracked the rise in support for the centre-left Labour Party.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron called early elections after the European Parliament elections, in which the far-right won a historic number of votes. Opinion polls predicted a right-wing victory in the parliamentary elections as well, which would have undermined the ambition of climate policy. This in turn could have led to lower taxes on fossil fuels and a reduction in wind power projects in France. However, the left-wing alliance New Popular Front, which includes Jean-Luc Mélencho's far-left France Indomitable, the Greens, the Socialists and the Communist Party, won the biggest vote.
A right-wing electoral victory would have meant lowering the ambition of climate policy
The left-wing coalition wants to make France a European leader in the development of offshore wind and hydropower. Investment in wind, solar and nuclear power is also an important part of British Labour's plans to stimulate economic growth. While both election winners have ambitions to promote climate policy, the outcome of the election means different things for their climate policies. In the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has the mandate to promote renewables, but in France, a consensus between very different parties must first be built.
The French left-wing coalition has no clear candidate for prime minister, and the parties disagree on many policy issues. In addition, the group's electoral record is not enough for a majority in the lower house of parliament to allow it to govern as a coalition. Thus, even if the left-wing coalition agrees on a leader and tries to form a government, it needs the support of the lower house of parliament in every vote.
Some policy issues can still win a majority even in a divided French parliament. For example, almost all parties support the continued use of existing nuclear power plants and the accelerated introduction of hydropower.
Macron will next appoint a prime minister from the largest coalition in Parliament. In France, it is rare for the president and a majority in parliament to be from different parties. Cooperation between Macron's centre-liberal coalition and Mélenchon's far-left, the largest party in the left-wing coalition, will be difficult, if not impossible, as both have declared that they do not want to cooperate with each other. This could lead to a break-up of the left-wing coalition, as the Socialists and Greens may seek to form an alliance with Macron's coalition.
Another option could be a technocratic government of experts, with Macron appointing ministers with no political affiliation to run day-to-day affairs. Both options could appear undemocratic to voters, as they would ignore the electoral gains of the fringe parties. This could further increase political instability.
Political instability reflects on French climate and energy policy
Political instability will inevitably delay France's climate and energy policy decisions. As a result of uncertainty, France may be more passive and introverted than its European partners are used to. In the past, France has been a vocal supporter of EU cooperation on nuclear energy, for example. Political instability may also have a negative impact on investment decisions in renewable energy projects.
In the UK, on the other hand, the government has already started working to promote renewable energy. In one of his first acts, the new Energy Secretary, Ed Miliband, overturned a British Conservative Party ban on wind turbines on land. He also approved three major solar farm projects in the East of England that had previously been blocked by the Conservative Party. Rapid moves by the British government are possible because Labour has an absolute majority in parliament and does not need to form a coalition government.
In France, political instability will last at least until next summer, as a dissolution of parliament is not possible until a year after the elections. Although the French elections were won by parties with more ambitious climate policies, future climate policy decisions will depend on the ability of the parties to work together. This skill is all the more important in a polarising world where the climate crisis is a shared threat.
Jenny Helle
The author is an analyst at Blic and an expert on EU lobbying.