Stubb in the Currents of Global Politics II

Back in February 2024, we wrote about newly elected President Alexander Stubb’s balancing act on the stage of geopolitics. Even then, it was clear that no one holds the script to this play, and each act requires navigating the winds from both East and West. This balancing has once again demanded improvisation, monologues, and countless dialogues to advance Finland’s interests globally.

The first act of the play has gone well. Stubb has succeeded in strengthening bilateral relations, especially with the United States, making the world appear slightly more predictable from Finland’s perspective.

During his presidential campaign, Stubb emphasized bilateral relations, particularly with the U.S. The results are evident. Finland’s significance has grown both within Europe and in relation to the U.S., and Finland’s active role has garnered substantial attention relative to its size. The latest achievement is a billion-dollar icebreaker deal with the U.S., a topic that has been discussed since the 1970s.

Stubb’s smoothness and ability to secure a seat at negotiation tables larger than Finland’s size has been noted even by American media. Following the October icebreaker trip, The Washington Post wrote that Finland’s growing role was thanks to the “smooth and intelligent” Stubb. It’s no coincidence that Stubb was among the European representatives when Zelensky visited the White House earlier this fall with leaders from major European countries.

What is happening in the far east?

Things are going well on the western stage. But what about the far East?

In today’s multipolar world order, there’s a risk in relying too heavily on one’s allies. One looming threat is a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan. As Taiwan is a significant ally and economic partner for the U.S., such a conflict would demand its full attention and resources. If this scenario unfolds, Russia could gain more room to pursue its imperialist goals at Europe’s doorstep.

This scenario has surely not gone unnoticed in the President’s office. Diplomacy and contingency planning are not meant to be visible in the media; negotiations and scenario work happen behind closed doors.

Stopping Russia’s aggression cannot rely solely on Stubb’s golf swing—though those skills haven’t been entirely irrelevant. Even Xi knows how to putt. From this angle too, Russia’s aggression must end now.

The border between foreign and domestic policy

The line between foreign and domestic policy is partly artificial. A good example is the debate over recognizing Palestine. While the final decision lies with the President, the proposal comes from the government. And forming that proposal involves domestic political differences and positions. So tensions do exist.

Unlike his predecessor, Stubb has not commented on economic issues. While the icebreaker deal has its own economic and domestic dimensions, there’s still room to pave the way for exports. The next potential export spearhead could be Finland’s quantum technology. Stubb already brought this up with Trump during their October meeting. As icebreakers move off the top of the agenda, quantum tech could become a growth sector supporting Finland’s weak economic development—though it’s also politically complex.

Cool, calm and collected?

Evil in global politics hasn’t diminished. Russia continues its war of aggression in Ukraine, instability persists in the Middle East, and China could at any moment carry out its threatened plan to take Taiwan. The international situation remains unstable, and Finland’s position is constantly shifting. The role of a small country can shrink just as quickly as it grows. The next U.S. president may not answer Stubb’s call.

Stubb’s value-based realism has at times seemed “written with Chinese characteristics”: a rule with an exception clause. For example, Israel—despite committing genocide—has been spared direct criticism. The tension between values and realism is real and tests the credibility of the line. And while Stubb’s focus has rightly been on foreign policy, as is customary for a Finnish president, Finland’s internal atmosphere also needs unifying.

International relations have been strengthened, and Finland has increased its global weight. Stubb’s first year and a half have shown he can be cool, calm, and collected.

But the term is just beginning. Finnish foreign policy is a constant balancing act, like walking a tightrope. Sudden moves have major consequences. And even if we’re dancing with the Americans, it’s worth remembering that the tightrope is most likely made in China.

Alvar Euro and Erdal Fere

The authors are consultants at Blic