The new age presidential balancing act on the world stage
Alexander Stubb's inauguration as President of the Republic of Finland on 1 March will usher in a new era in Finnish foreign policy. With Finland's accession to NATO, the world order will look different than before, both in Finland and to Finland. The new President will have to balance a demanding geopolitical stage for which no one yet has a script.
During the presidential race, Mr Stubb stressed his strong pro-Western stance, which focuses on close relations with the West and special bilateral relations with the United States. The incoming US president will have to find his own way of looking at the East as a new and geographically eastern member of the Western alliance.
The well-worn phrase "Finland can't do anything about its geography" cannot be completely ignored, even though many would certainly wish it in this day and age. It goes without saying that the Kremlin will not ignore Finland's new head of state. Stubb got a taste of this last week, when a current affairs programme on Russia's number one channel dubbed Finland's future president a CIA agent who is not even Finnish, but Swedish.
At a time of global political upheaval, Finland's 13th President cannot be content to seek balance only on the classic West-East axis, but must keep the ever more distant East in sharp focus. During the presidential election, Stubb's views on China policy were still partly obscure. Analysts have already asked what kind of China policy the foreign policy expert on the West wants to pursue. China's growing global influence shows no signs of abating, with Chinese investment in infrastructure projects, trade routes and local industry from Africa to the Arctic.
Foreign and domestic policy cannot be separated, but the foreign policy led by the President of Finland creates a framework that ranges from the security of the whole nation to the competitive strength of businesses and the ability of different sectors of Finnish society to function. Finland's economy is closely tied to the EU's internal market and, as an export-driven country, it is in the economic interests of Finnish companies and citizens that Finland plays a strong and growing role in international trade.
With the office of President, Stubb will be the international figurehead for Finland as a whole. It is therefore not unimportant what image of Finland and Finnish business culture the sitting President conveys. If he wishes, Stubb can seek to emphasise Finland's role as an international specialist in areas such as 6G network development or quantum technology.
Finland, as part of Europe, has been living in a utopia of peace for several decades now. As a continuation of the crisis era, Russia launched a full-scale war of aggression in Ukraine, the anniversary of which came at the weekend. There is no end to the world's humanitarian crises; most recently, Israel's brutal and inhumane use of excessive force against the Palestinian civilian population is demanding international attention, to which Finland's foreign policy leadership must also respond.
The time for the incoming President to recover from the election campaign and enjoy his election victory will be short, as there are already a number of issues on his desk for which he is needed. As President, Sauli Niinistö orchestrated Finland's foreign policy for 12 years with, according to citizens, near-perfection. The next few years will show what kind of president Alexander Stubb will be and what kind of international role Finland will be able to play.
President Stubb will need to be well balanced and poised, because if the signs are right, the number of young people walking is certainly not going to decrease in the face of ongoing crises, deepening tensions between China and the West, the US presidential elections and the upheavals that are still out of sight.
Stubb can take encouragement from the song by Taylor Swift, the biggest pop star in the world today and the hottest name in US presidential conspiracy theories: 'Lost your balance on a tightrope, It's never too late to get it back'. May it encourage the new president to try, even if his balance is sometimes off, because no one knows yet what kind of six-year term awaits the new host of the presidential palace. The most important thing is to start walking alongside the young people who have been elected, confident that Stubb's in-depth knowledge, skill in diplomacy and pursuit of justice will leave him in the history of Finnish presidents as a unifying factor in both domestic and foreign policy.
Alvar Euro, Eeva Honkonen, Erdal Fere
The authors are analysts at Blic