The most intense phase of the election hype is upon us
With less than a month to go until election day, the candidates' campaigning is gathering pace. As the panel debates and interviews take place, the coffee table and social media conversations are also picking up speed. But what are we talking about in this election?
The parties have published their election manifestos, from which the media, accompanied by politicians, have sought to highlight the key issues for the upcoming elections. It still seems that these elections are not clearly centred around a single theme, but that image and images are taking on a more important role than substance. The parties have failed to create insightful solutions for a future coloured by years of crisis, and the political community is characterised by a short-term vision. This makes it difficult for parties to see beyond election day or government negotiations, let alone to articulate a concrete vision of the future for the public.
The issues that are most prominent in voters' minds can influence the parties' order of finish, which, especially in the current tight situation, can also be reflected in the composition of the future government and thus in the government programme that will strongly determine the policy environment in the coming years.
Election theme still on the agenda
The topics that have remained in the public debate have focused on the changed security policy situation, which many probably could not have predicted at the time of the 2019 parliamentary elections. However, the economy has dominated most of the election debates, although no more specific debate has developed around it beyond the headline-level adjustment and rebalancing measures. For the public, the economy has not been confined to the debate on public finances, but the rapidly rising inflation is also affecting ordinary households. It is noteworthy that, as we move from one crisis to another, citizens' need for political action is greater than it has been for a long time. Yet election manifestos and debates do not address or offer a range of solutions to the challenges at hand, but create divisions and perceptions of the ideological direction of society.
Usually, during elections, elections take precedence in all social debate, allowing phenomena to adapt to the election themes or, alternatively, to flow away from the most heated debate. The specific feature of these elections is that there has been no similar merging of issues. The security policy debate, overshadowed by the war in Ukraine, unites parties regardless of their position on the value map. Finland has done its part to bring the NATO process to a successful conclusion, and from now on we just have to wait for the ratification decisions of the familiar duo of Hungary and Turkey. The elections in Turkey and the earthquake that has claimed many lives may further delay the decision.
For years, the problems of the Finnish education system and their longer-term effects on society as a whole have been on the horizon. One of the election themes has been education, a concern shared by all parties. In their election manifestos, the parties have mentioned, either directly or indirectly, that cuts in education funding should be avoided in the next government term. School shopping in large cities and school segregation have emerged as the most controversial issues in the wake of poorer PISA results. The same theme of polarisation has also been linked to fears of increasing gang affiliation among young people. These issues are unlikely to become nationwide election themes, as they are highly concentrated in the capital region and other large cities.
A number of smaller themes have also been identified in the public debate. The aftermath of the energy crisis, climate and nature issues, and the eternal topic of social services are among the topics that will be discussed in the run-up to the elections.
The Prime Minister's Party chooses Finland's next EU Commissioner
It is desirable to bring new openings and perspectives to the somewhat one-dimensional electoral debate. The party that will take the lead in the parliamentary elections will determine Finland's position in the European Union by electing a commissioner, usually from its own party. At national level, there is still relatively little discussion of Brussels in Finland, even though the Commission's decisions affect the lives of Finns even more than the Prime Minister's party in Parliament can achieve through its own activities. Topical EU issues for Finland include the electricity market model, the restoration regulation, the reform of economic rules, the common debt and the relaxation of competition rules. These issues at European Union level should be monitored and discussed more in the public debate. It is likely that the debate on the joint debt in particular will continue to raise its head as the year progresses. In particular, the electoral success of the True Finns will influence Finland's decision to take on joint debt.
Government programme sets out Finland's direction for the coming years
Once the elections have been held and the MPs elected, negotiations begin on the composition of the government, the content of the government programme and the portfolio. The government programme is a programme of measures for the entire government term, which sets out guidelines for a series of larger and smaller policy themes.
If you would like to exchange ideas with us on this topic, our experts are at your disposal to help you interpret the election results and analyse the future government programme. Contact us!