Eight tips for following the elections

Sunday 2 April this week will see the culmination of the celebration of democracy as the last votes are counted at the ballot box on the official election day. In the run-up to the elections, one of the biggest soundbites in the public debate has been the lack of clearly discernible election themes. In the major televised election debates, the parliamentary party leaders have taken each other to task, still trying to get the big picture of the election. The rhetoric of the leading candidates has been honed to a fine edge, from the firecracker challenger to the gestures of the head of state.

Although the electoral setting and starting point may have deviated slightly from the plot familiar to political bench jockeys, these elections cannot be described as boring. The debate on the Finnish democratic system, among other things, has taken precedence over the political line. There is talk on the streets about possible tactical votes and the effectiveness of such voting behaviour. The elections are shaping up to be, above all, prime ministerial elections.

We need to turn the debate from pre-election speculation to the outcome of the elections. We've listed below the topics to watch on election night.

Ratio between the number of seats and the number of votes

Election polls are used to predict the percentage distribution of votes cast throughout Finland. The actual winners of the elections will be crowned on the basis of the seats won. The constituency-specific forecasts published during the election week predict that the Finns will win several individual seats across Finland.The Coalition Party is expected to win the most seats, immediately behind the Finns, with the Social Democrats in third place. The last week of the campaign will be decisive in terms of the distribution of seats. It is therefore worth bearing in mind what politicians often say, "let's count all the votes first".

Are block elections about to arrive in Finland?

The last two terms of government have given an indication of Finland's possible move towards a Nordic bloc policy. The Sipilä government represented traditional right-wing policies, while the government that followed it, now coming to an end, represented left-wing economic policies. Political analysts have said that the next government will prove whether Finland's coalition government policy is a thing of the past, at least for the time being. Speculation about the next government revolves around two different coalition options: a bourgeois or a blue-red government. If the future government is formed by the Finns and the Coalition Party, the new government could be seen as a third manifestation of bloc politics.

How big a party is the Centre?

One of the biggest question marks in these elections hangs over the centre's support. Since Sipilä's government, support for the Centre has been at an all-time low. The party's first regional elections were a ray of hope, with the party doing much better than expected. A similar result cannot be expected for the parliamentary elections. After the elections, the Centre's interest in government will be one of the most interesting details to watch, as almost regardless of the winner of the elections, the Centre will be courted for a more significant role in the future government than its number of seats.

Are the Greens losing support?

Over the last ten years, it has been the rule rather than the exception that the Greens have won more votes than the Left. In the run-up to these elections, the balance of power between the two current governing parties has been turned on its head, at least in the pre-election polls. In contrast to many previous elections, climate change has not emerged as a major election theme. The Greens have failed to create a clear divide between their election promises and those of the Left Alliance and the SDP, which is why mobile voters may find their political home elsewhere in these elections. A week before the elections, Green activists in particular have been campaigning on social media against the SDP's tactical voting.

Will we see a new party in Parliament next term?

The lower right has long had a blank space on the political value map. Liberal right-wing candidates have been found in particular in the Coalition Party, the National Coalition Party and the Greens, but no parliamentary party has distinguished itself by these values. Among the small parties, the Liberal Party is positioned in the middle of this vacuum. The party found space in the national media with its alternative budget 'There's a lot to cut'. Media publicity has fuelled speculation about the new party's entry into parliament, but the minor parties' journey to Arcadia Hill is no walkover. This time, however, it is worth keeping an eye on how much support the other parties will receive on election night.

Will the number of Harkimos in Parliament increase?

This term, Harry Harkimo has been the sole representative of Liike Nyt in the Parliament. In addition to Harkimo, the party's figurehead, there may well be more than one Harkimo of the same family on the list of those who have passed in these elections. The strongest party's other candidate is Joel Harkimo. Compared to the other parties, Liike Nyt's lists of candidates include a number of people familiar from the public eye, who can be expected to garner surprisingly large numbers of votes for the party.

Competition for the title of sound bearer

The title of the country's top vote-getter is always up for grabs. The competitive situation is uneven, with Helsinki and Uusimaa in particular having a clearly higher number of voters. In Helsinki, Elina Valtonen of the Coalition Party and Jussi Halla-aho of the Finns, Sanna Marin of Pirkanmaa and Li Andersson of the Left Alliance, who has won votes many times over, can be nominated in advance to compete for the title of election hero. Those with high vote totals will also boost their party's other candidates in their constituencies, pulling them along with them to the Parliament.

The fate of democracy

Elections are one of the most important indicators of social development. The results should not just be seen in terms of the distribution of votes cast between the parties, as the sum of party support always adds up to 100%. In terms of civic participation, turnout reflects people's belief in their own ability to influence. Voter turnout correlates with social integration. For those who support a democratic system, in addition to the party ranking, turnout is a source of tension. In the last elections, turnout was 72.1, two percentage points higher than in the 2015 elections. Election night will show whether rising turnout is a longer-term trend.

Are there any points that stand out for you that should be followed in particular during the elections? Contact us and we can discuss them with you.

Eeva Honkonen

The author is a Blicin brainee.