How tactically does your municipality vote? Or is tactical voting even possible?

Municipal and regional elections are approaching, and although there are still months to go, now might be the right time to start refining a voting strategy. Tactical voting, if done well, can require a fair amount of planning. However, the most effective approach might actually be to vote just before polls close, allowing for a response to the latest projections. Tactical voting isn’t always the straightforward calculation it’s often portrayed to be.

Many in Finland, or those who closely follow Finnish politics, may think that tactical voting became mainstream in the 2023 parliamentary elections and that it’s a relatively simple method. Yet these assumptions do not hold up under scrutiny, especially when examined from the following four perspectives.

Firstly, tactical voting is far from new in Finland. It has played a role in politics for decades, such as during the 1937 presidential election. At that time, Social Democrats skillfully coordinated to block the re-election of President P. E. Svinhufvud by voting strategically in favor of K. J. Ståhlberg from the Progress Party over their own candidate, Väinö Tanner. According to an agreement with the Agrarian League, the Social Democrats planned to shift their support to the Agrarian candidate, Kyösti Kallio, if Ståhlberg didn’t win, which ultimately led to Kallio’s election. Thus, the alleged tactical voting in the 2023 parliamentary elections is simply part of a long tradition in Finnish politics, not a new phenomenon.

Secondly, the number of tactical voters is limited (according to Helsingin Sanomat, about one in five voters used a tactical approach in the first round of the 2023 Finnish presidential election). Values significantly influence even this calculated choice. Research has shown that tactical voters often make decisions within a framework of values, often selecting among parties they find palatable. One notable exception is the "double haters" seen in the U.S., where the two-party system means only two main candidates have a realistic chance, despite the presence of others. In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, for example, voters who disliked both main candidates voted for the lesser evil to prevent the more disliked candidate from winning. Thus, tactical voting is far from simple or purely rational.

Thirdly, tactical voting exists in many different forms, making it overly simplistic to group all instances under a single concept. This raises the question of what isn’t considered tactical voting. Can a voter cast a vote completely free of any kind of, even subconscious, strategizing? Drawing a line between "normal" voting and tactical voting is also not straightforward.

Finally, achieving the desired result through calculated voting behavior requires a deep dive into the election landscape, something not everyone has the time or expertise to do. Even then, there’s no guarantee of achieving the desired outcome.

This critical reflection does not mean that tactical voting is merely a phenomenon that challenges the principles of democracy. On the contrary, it can expand the understanding of the value of a single vote, emphasizing that every vote matters. After all, tactical voting is one way of using one’s vote, allowing citizens to influence outcomes as they see fit. Viewed in this way, tactical voting can actually reflect the principles of a functioning democracy. Clearly, it’s neither a simple nor a new phenomenon.

With the complexity of this approach in mind, those considering tactical voting in the upcoming municipal and regional elections would do well to start developing their strategies soon. On the other hand, time is ticking to start running those Excel calculations, given the many variables involved and just eight months until election day.

It would be great if it were the candidate of your own municipality, regardless of party, who could decide on important issues - or just be a member of this or that party!

Erdal Fere

The author is an analyst and influencing expert at Blic.