Autumn offers both domestic and global entertainment for the political benchwarmer

Autumn will once again bring a wealth of interesting events in the political arena that will help shape the future of Finland, Europe and the world. The coming months could be decisive in many ways and are worth keeping a close eye on. 

We've put together four of the most interesting policy highlights of the autumn: the start of the EU's five-year term, upcoming labour negotiations at home, preparations for the 2025 municipal and regional elections in the spring, and the US presidential election, all of which will contribute to shaping the direction of policy well into the future. 

Europe's next five-year term  

The new term of the EU Parliament started in July, with the reorganisation of parliamentary groups and the allocation of committee seats. Roberta Metsola (EPP) from Malta was elected as President of the Parliament for a further term, while Ursula von der Leyen (EPP) from Germany was elected to lead the Commission for a further term. In her speech, Ms von der Leyen set out her priorities for the coming term, including EU competitiveness, investment in clean energy, investment, security and support for Ukraine. A new Commission will be elected in the autumn and is expected to take office at the end of the year or early 2025 at the latest. In Finland, we are watching with interest to see what portfolio will be assigned to our Commissioner-designate Henna Virkkunse (CoR). 

Will the labour market rounds be chaos or a new bustle? 

In the autumn, wage negotiations and a round of union negotiations between employers' and employees' federations will start in several sectors. The climate for negotiations is expected to be difficult, as the government has been pushing through a wide package of labour law reforms throughout its term, with little regard for the opposition of the trade union movement. Last spring, the government and the social partners negotiated, among other things, an export-driven wage model and local agreements with meagre results, bringing new disputes to the round of negotiations. Prior to this, the government pushed through a law amendment restricting political strikes, which led to widespread strikes but ended in a government landslide. In the round of industrial action, the trade union movement will seek compensation for the government's unpopular labour market reforms and, if it does so, could throw the labour market into real turmoil during the autumn.  

Preparations for the 2025 spring municipal and regional elections are gathering pace and will be a major test for many presidencies 

As autumn begins, every party is looking ahead to the municipal and regional elections next spring. Some parties have already published their first candidates. As the regional elections approach, the economic debate will focus on the pressure on regions to make savings in their budgets. After the parliamentary elections, the municipal and regional elections are the first elections of general political importance, the outcome of which will have an impact on the power relations both within the government and between the parties.  

It is also noteworthy that the forthcoming municipal and regional elections will be a test for the presidency of several parties: the Centre, Left Alliance and RKP will go into the spring elections with a new president, which can be seen as a litmus test for the new leaders. SDP leader Antti Lindtman, the main opposition party, has so far only suffered electoral defeats during his term, so Lindtman is personally under great pressure to succeed.  

The main governing parties, the Coalition Party and the Finns, can consider the election result as an interim certificate from the voters. It is possible that the municipal and regional elections will add new rounds to the government's mid-term elections.  

US presidential election 

This autumn, the US presidential election will be at the heart of international politics. The election has already seen an extraordinary number of twists and turns, with Republican candidate Donald Trump being assassinated and Democratic President Joe Biden withdrawing his candidacy at the end of July. Biden was replaced by Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate at the end of August. The polls are very close and it is still impossible to predict the outcome of the election. The only thing that is certain is that the election and the choice will be of great importance, and will have repercussions for the future of both NATO and the international community as a whole. 

Sallamaarit Markkanen

The author is a Blic manager and policy expert.