Who will win the municipal and regional elections?

With less than two weeks to go until the municipal and regional elections, the mood on the election field is growing. Election night on 13 April will determine the winners and losers, but how will this be determined and how will the parties interpret the results?

The main focus on election night will be on a national level to see whose support column rises the highest and which party, in other words, wins the election nationally. The margin of support is tight between the coalition and the SDP and either party could come first in either or both elections. The mere fact that there are two separate elections leaves a lot of room for interpretation of the election result. If the first place in the municipal and regional elections goes to different parties, it is clear that both the SDP and the Coalition Party can both declare themselves winners.

There is also a battle for the top spot in the rankings other than the national ones. Sofia Virta, chairwoman of the Greens, for example, raised the party mood by saying that "the battle for the fourth largest party in this spring's elections will be between the Greens and the Finns". For the Greens, a fourth place would therefore be an electoral victory.

The centre is typically in its comfort zone in municipal and regional elections, and it is again. In fact, the Centre can almost invariably declare itself the winner of municipal and regional elections, as long as the results are above the national polls. This time too, the Centre seems to be firmly in third place in both elections, thanks to a strong field of candidates.

In addition to the national result, the mayoral elections in the big cities, especially Helsinki, Tampere and Turku, are symbolically important in interpreting the election results. Even if the national pole position is narrowly missed by the Coalition, the matching victories in two of these three cities could be interpreted as at least a defeat. The same is true for the Democrats, especially if we add to the list a return to the largest party in President Lindtman's home town of Vantaa. For many parties, success in Helsinki is more important than the election result for the country as a whole. For the Greens and the Left Alliance, a second place in Helsinki could be a silver lining in the election result, even if the rest of the country's result is a failure.

For the True Finns, the ingredients are there for victory. Expectations are so low that a suitable benchmark could be found in the 2017 municipal elections, when the party was last in government and received 8.8% support. However, this should now be exceeded by a clear margin, preferably to double-digit support figures, in order to call the result even a rejection victory.

For the RKP and the Christian Democrats, the victory can only be interpreted as maintaining their current positions. After all, both parties are taking on the responsibility of a very unpopular government.

So on election night, the results broadcast could be full of winners, depending on who you ask.

Juha Halttunen and Jemi Heinilä

The authors are a partner and director of Blic.